MUSHARRAF'S OATH

(Through an oversight this piece on the oath of Musharraf as civilian president of Pakistan remained unposted. Next to the horoscopes of a nation, the affected head of the state, an oath chart is is crucial for our analysis. Here the importance of the oath chart stands vindicated)

The live telecast of the the oath of Musharraf today (29 November 2007) at 11/54 a.m. shows a disturbingly bad planetary position for him as a civilian president.

It is the strangest case I know of when a military dictator has taken such a big risk of becoming a civilian president with all the fear of being overthrown in a country where Aurangzeb is regarded as the greatest emperor and where there are instances of two military dictators repeating the sinister intrigues of Aurangzeb through which they captured power in Pakistan.

The Moghuls never had a tradition, convention or rule of the first child of an emperor succeeding his father. Aurangzeb had killed his brothers including the eldest one, Dara Shikoh, whom he first got blinded, made him parade on a donkey before being killed.

In the well known history of Pakistan we have instances of the Aurangzeb like acts repeated by, first Zia ul Haq and, later by Pervez Musharraf himself.

The analysis given by B.Raman, the brilliant retired officer of India’s RAW, makes a brilliant reading as usual. He starts by narrating both Aurangzeb like acts thus:
“Nawaz Sharif thought that Musharraf would be more submissive as the chief than the two officers senior to him and hence made him the chief. In doing so, he committed the same mistake as the late Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto, as the Prime Minister, did in 1976, when he appointed Zia-ul-Haq as the COAS after superseding two Lt Gens. senior to him, who had the reputation of being independent and assertive. Shortly after Zia took over as the Chief, the Shah of Iran had visited Pakistan. While introducing Zia to the Shah, the flamboyant Bhutto was reported to have remarked: “Meet my new Army Chief. He is totally loyal to me. If I ask him to stand, he will stand. If I ask him to sit, he will sit. If I ask him to salute, he will salute. With him as the chief, the Army is in safe hands.” Zia gave Bhutto one of his sheepish grins and saluted him. In 1977, he overthrew Bhutto and sent him to the gallows tied to his cot in 1979”. (Musharraf Minus Uniform, Outlook, November 2007)

In Pakistan’s history, the army has been like a man eater always relishing the flesh of human beings, in this case, democracy loving politicians. Out of uniform, Musharraf is at the mercy of his successor, General Ashfaq Kayani.

Then on 8 January 2008, elections are to be held which is bound to be a hostile parliament wanting even to impeach him. Musharraf has to end emergency soon and with the army possibly switching its loyalty to Kayani, runs into the danger of being toppled, may be, not nonviolently, as he overthrew Sharif on 12 October 1999.

Political scientists should debate if there can ever be a democracy in a country which is theocratic. If it is theocratic, it has to have religious, not civil code, and discrimination based on religious code, against other religions and also women as is well known in the case of Islam.

It is not clear what the Pakistani lovers and champions of democracy, independent judiciary and adult franchise want in place of Shariat if Pakistan is, and continues to be an Islamic Republic.

Look at the constitutions of Iran and Saudi Arabia to know that democracy as we accept in India, with its genuine and well known secularism, is not acceptable to those countries. It will be so in Pakistan’s Islamic Republic also.

Musharraf does not appear to be safe after January 2008.

In the cold war days, Pakistan was the puppet of USA. India, whether we admit openly or not, was leaning towards USSR. During the time of Indira Gandhi, after the Friendhip Treaty of 1971 with USSR, we were clearly in the Soviet bloc inspite of our pretension to being neutral.

But in the changed world politics of 2007, (in the post 11 September 2001 world) USA wants Pakistan to do the impossible, the most distasteful and unIslamic act of fighting jehadis who should normally be welcome, and are welcome, in an Islamic Republic.

But that is not so. Pakistan can be ruined economically if USA does not give it massive economic aid under the pretext of fighting terrorists.

The more difficult positon now is faced by General Ashfaq Kayani who has been offered a ceasefire by the Taliban. If he accepts it, the fight against the terrorists will get halted and if he does not, he will face the same situation which Pervez Musharraf of 2007 has been facing.

Musharraf said “There is an unrealistic and may be impracticable obsession with your form of democracy, with your form of human rights, civil liberties,” “One certainly cannot sacrifice the stability and development of the nation for the sake of your views.”

The truth is that Pakistan can never have a democracy as India has because of its history of Islamic fanaticism which gave it its birth and, a horoscope which can never give a continuous democracy. That is the danger the civilian Pervez Musharraf faces and who knows that if General Ashfaq Kayani becomes a third Aurangzeb of Pakistan’s history, doing to Musharraf what he had done to Sharif in 1999.

One has to remember that there will be three power centres, the army, always powerful, a civilian president with well known shakiness and now some elected representatives. Who then is the Aurangzeb waiting in the shadows?